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2010 Mid-Term Predictions

In Minnesota Political News on October 29, 2010 at 3:00 pm

Well everyone, with the mid-term elections just 4 days away, its time for some predictions. Its important to note that I’m a bit left of center as political leanings, though my predictions will be made to eliminate a liberal bias. For those who believe I should be stumping for a DFL Candidate here, please remember I’ve done my time in the trenches door-knocking, phone-calling, at parades, and even a start-up Draft campaign for this years gubernatorial election. This analysis is based upon the trends I see and the numbers.

First up, the Minnesota Governor’s race. I will be voting for Mark Dayton personally and I also think he’s going to win. With this race, I believe Dayton will keep enough support in the Twin Cities coupled with continuing strong support outstate and particularly the Iron Range and parts north of the metro region. Dayton has led in the polls consistently, though narrow at times. In fact the up and down swing of the polls suggest that many of  Minnesota’s notoriously independent minded voting base is still divided in large part. The exception of course will be in the 6th Congressional District.

In the First Congressional District, Tim Walz will be re-elected. Walz’s more likable personal qualities combined with his pragmatic policy approach will continue in Southern Minnesota possibly for as long as he wants the job. Walz’s consistent lead in the polls in recent weeks with a 4 point jump just recently, makes this an easy one to call.

In the Second Congressional Distict, I see John Kline staying on top. Kline’s more conservative approach and message of fiscal responsibility remains a strong pull for voters in the Southern Metro Region. Without any traction in the media and a splintered democratic base, Shelley Madore is in a very weak position to challenge Kline.

For the Third Congressional District, I’m going with Erik Paulson to edge out Jim Meffert. Dispite seemmingly superfluous sparring over medicare benefits and healthcare reform, this district leans Republican. Keep in mind that Obama won here in 2008 with 53% though, making this a swing district for now and the foreseeable future. Where have you gone Jim Ramstad? A district turns its lonely eyes to you.

The Fourth and Fifth Congressional Districts of Minnesota are possibly among the easiest to predict nationwide as Keith Ellison and Betty McCollum have solid democratic bases in Minnesota’s most urban districts. With that said some news of note in the 4th District includes Theresa Collett sparring with Betty McCollum over the phrase “under God” which, not surpisingly, rouses a debate over separation of church and state vis-a-vis the First Amendment. Meanwhile, Keith Ellison is battling not in a tight race, but a racist with Tea Party heavyweight Judson Phillips calling for an end to his membership in Congress simply because he is a Muslim for it is a faith that says, according to Phillips, “kill people who disagree with you,” and “that is something voters should seriously consider when they vote.” Obviously Phillips has never met Rep. Ellison, nor made any effort to understand Islam.

In Minnesota’s 6th District, Tarryl Clark and Michele Bachmann have waged the most vitriolic campaign of the year. The polls say Bachmann will win this one, but not without raising and spending more money than any congressional campaign in Minnesota history. Experts suggest Bachmann’s war-chest allows for greater political freedom and planning. While this may be true, Bachmann could never win a race in Minnesota outside of the 6th Dsitrict and for that reason, a Senate run or greater seems unlikely, but Bachmann will surely surprise us nonetheless.

In Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, the call is for Colin Peterson in a not-so-tight race with Lee Byberg. Though a conservative district for the most part, the 7th District has found the DFL version of Jim Ramstad in Colin Peterson. Peterson will most likely be in a safe seat in the near-term if not longer.

Coming down in the 8th Conressional District of Minnesota, we find Jim Oberstar in a tighter than expected race with Republican Chip Cravaack. The Iron Range has been a DFL stronghold for decades, but the current polarized political climate may be slowly changing all of that.

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  1. Frist let me say from a web developer point of view, not a bad little blog you got here, WordPress is a powerful app and am just happy you went this route instead of say.. Blogspot.

    Second, let me say dispite our different ideologies, you are a tough formative opponent in the game we call politics. Your passion, as is mine.. For public policy and legislative affairs is what drives us to challenge ‘the system” and fight for what we think is worth fighting for, even to the point of being a tad bit aggressive in our analysis. I firmly beleive if we better understood eachother.. At least based on this post and some of my other heavily liberal friends, I think we may come to realize each of us may not be as partisan or ideological but can appreciate the historical, legal and factual background of a healthly political debate. Even possibly building integrity through demonstrating courtesy while standing our ground and staying on point, invoke our own standardized principles, enhance persuasive power by occasionally being prepared to find middle ground, and develop credibility by conceding logical opposing views.

    Third, I think these predictions are a fair and non partisan assesment, although I would say MNCD 6 is going to be closer then people think. Being a conservative but NOT a fan of Bachmann whatsoever, I think Clark is going to give her a run her (massive pile) of money. If I just lived a few miles to the east I would have a hard time casting my vote. I also think MNCD 5 is going to be wrapped and given to Ellison but not without a fight. MNCD 8 came out of no where and is going to be interesting to watch. In conclusion.. Being in the MNCD 2, I actually reviewed both Kline and Madore but at the end of the day Kline, in my opnion has done well and will get my vote. Regarding the gubernatorial election, I have to be honest and say I havent been happy with Emmer or his campaign and think he’s been getting in his own way and had a much better shot against Dayton than MAC but wasted it. I cant even get close in supporting Horner or the way his campaign’s been doing things.. So this is race is definantly going to give me pause at the voting booth.

  2. Thanks for the reply David. Well it appears some predictions were on and some were off. I honestly saw CD6 coming much closer than a 12 point spread. Of course CD8 was a bit of a surprise, but most of us predicted Cravaack vs. Oberstar would be close. CD2, CD4, and CD5 were the easiest as you stated as well, but CD1 was honestly closer than I expected.

    The gubernatorial race is the one still on everyone’s mind though and this will likely become an ugly war of words before its settled. Statistically I just don’t see Emmer coming out on top here, but the process must be allowed to move forward nonetheless.

    As for building civil dialogue across ideological lines, I couldn’t agree with you more. Such dialogue may be needed now more than in recent times. Despite differences, American’s share more common interests th an they lack. The vast majority of us care deeply about our neighbors, our communities, and our nation. Though we may differ on the path forward and tools to create it, we now have divided government that more accurately resembles the divisions between us as a people. These divisions cannot last long, just as our founders realized when they broke from King George and the British Parliament. To be honest, I find myself more disgusted with my colleagues on the Left than many on the Right in many circumstances of late. The hatred and vitriol that members of both sides have displayed unto one another in this last election cycle has forced me to demand more integrity not just from others, but from myself as well.

    Once again thank you for the reply and I look forward to further dialogue and debate. Without question, I see the true merit in conservative ideals and if nothing else, those ideals do an excellent job of keeping us liberals honest with our ideals and those of our neighbors.

  3. What a crazy night. Its its Xmas for us political junkies. CD6 was what I expected. It began tight but after checking out last minute polling, I even think Clark knew but didn’t realize it would be 12 points.

    I have to admit CD8 was a shocker for me. I thought it was going to be close but historically speaking.. Wow!

    Kline, Ellison and McCullum were shrink wrapped with a bow.

    I agree I thought Walz would of carried CD1 like Oberstar would of.

    The Dayton > Emmer battle (I hope) wont be a Franken > Coleman debacle but as you say the process must do its thing. The last I checked it was seven thousand votes or something close to that. Even brighter conservative moderators then myself are saying Emmer will probably loose this unless there is a significant ballot problem. As I said in my latest FB post.. “This conservative honestly wouldn’t mind if (WHEN) Dayton wins, in 40 years since MN had a republican legislature, it probably wont last long, at the the end of the day I would rather have two party gridlock than one party rule”

    Its ironic that being history junkies as much as political junkies most of our adult lives, you and I understand how funny it is how a JFK Democrat is a moderate conservative today where Teddy Roosevelt would of been a liberal today so what do those labels really mean anyway? I personally think as any society whether it be the Roman Empire or the Britain or the United Sates, its about Polio-Economics. If one believes progressive taxation which naturally would lend its self to a larger government of management or a flat tax system with less government regulation and more Laissez-faire. Being a coherent sophisticated student of both history and politics I dont need to tell you this.

    Regardless of what economic ideology someone has, taxes are necessary (whether its a necessary EVIL is subjective LOL). How ironic it is that I find that I am disgusted with the GOP establishment and their blatant hypocrisy everything from Dont Ask Dont Tell to the neocon never saw a spending bill or war the didnt like. Im proud Im a Libertarian-ish paleo conservative who is pro choice, gay rights, anti death penalty, pro 1, 2, 5 and 10 amendment rights supporter, anti neocon – Bush Doctrine conservative who’s favorite presidents were FDR, Reagan, Lincoln, Washington and Truman and worst are Hoover, LBJ, Bush 1 and 2, Nixon and Jackson.

    I find it amusing how the American political pendulum swings back and fourth where history just repeats its self to the point where I often wonder if our ideological landscape has Alzheimer’s. I use to say for people just to get out and vote to vote, to exercise your constitutional right so many died for but I honestly think there should be a test to vote.. hehe.. Not really but wouldn’t it be nice though?

    The progressive ideals of FDR’s New Deal or Republican’s Contract With America in the 90s, its not the path you take but the destination you arrive at. Only during spit governments did real legislation happen, whether it was Clinton working with Gingrich, Reagan and Tip ONeil, or maybe we’ll see Obama and Boehner play nice together.. We can only hope!

  4. What a crazy night. Its its Xmas for us political junkies. CD6 was what I expected. It began tight but after checking out last minute polling, I even think Clark knew but didn’t realize it would be 12 points.

    I have to admit CD8 was a shocker for me. I thought it was going to be close but historically speaking.. Wow!

    Kline, Ellison and McCullum were shrink wrapped with a bow.

    I agree I thought Walz would of carried CD1 like Oberstar would of.

    The Dayton > Emmer battle (I hope) wont be a Franken > Coleman debacle but as you say the process must do its thing. The last I checked it was seven thousand votes or something close to that. Even brighter conservative moderators then myself are saying Emmer will probably loose this unless there is a significant ballot problem. As I said in my latest FB post.. “This conservative honestly wouldn’t mind if (WHEN) Dayton wins, in 40 years since MN had a republican legislature, it probably wont last long, at the the end of the day I would rather have two party gridlock than one party rule”

    Its ironic that being history junkies as much as political junkies most of our adult lives, you and I understand how funny it is how a JFK Democrat is a moderate conservative today where Teddy Roosevelt would of been a liberal today so what do those labels really mean anyway? I personally think as any society whether it be the Roman Empire or Great Britain or the United Sates, its about Politico-Economics. If one believes progressive taxation which naturally would lend its self to a larger government of management or a flat tax system with less government regulation and more Laissez-faire. Being a coherent sophisticated student of both history and politics I dont need to tell you this.

    Regardless of what economic ideology someone has, taxes are necessary (whether its a necessary EVIL is subjective LOL). How ironic it is that I find that I am disgusted with the GOP establishment and their blatant hypocrisy everything from Dont Ask Dont Tell to the neocon never saw a spending bill or war the didnt like. Im proud Im a Libertarian-ish paleo conservative who is pro choice, gay rights, anti death penalty, pro 1, 2, 5 and 10 amendment rights supporter, anti neocon – Bush Doctrine conservative who’s favorite presidents were FDR, Reagan, Lincoln, Washington and Truman and worst are Hoover, LBJ, Bush 1 and 2, Nixon and Jackson.

    I find it amusing how the American political pendulum swings back and fourth where history just repeats its self to the point where I often wonder if our ideological landscape has Alzheimer’s. I use to say for people just to get out and vote to vote, to exercise your constitutional right so many died for but I honestly think there should be a test to vote.. hehe.. Not really but wouldn’t it be nice though?

    The progressive ideals of FDR’s New Deal or Republican’s Contract With America in the 90s, its not the path you take but the destination you arrive at. Only during split governments did real legislation happen, whether it was Clinton working with Gingrich, Reagan and Tip ONeil, or maybe we’ll see Obama and Boehner play nice together.. We can only hope!

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